Producing Profitability
Scenario Modelling and Decision Analysis
Scenario Modelling and Decision Analysis is where Lovelock Rural helps test the next move before it is carried out in real life. It takes the current business as it actually stands – numbers, stock, feedbase, debt, labour and markets – and runs a handful of realistic options forward so the likely upside, downside and pressure points are easier to see in advance. The work is built to answer “what happens if we really do this?” in numbers, not just in gut feel
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What this delivers
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A solid base case that pulls together how the business is performing now across profit, cashflow, stocking pressure and workload, so every scenario starts from a true picture rather than a rough guess.
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Realistic options for the decision on the table – change in scale, structure, timing, mix, investment or selling pathway – run forward over several years instead of just looking at year one.
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Side‑by‑side comparisons of those options across margin, cash position, feed demand, labour load, debt pressure and resilience, so it is clear where each path is strong, weak or finely balanced.
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A clearer sense of what needs to go right for each option to work, what happens if seasons or prices move against it, and how quickly pressure would start to build if things drift off plan.
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A short list of conditions and markers that would trigger a rethink – so the business knows in advance when a decision has stopped doing the job it was meant to do.
Why this matters
This work is about avoiding expensive, hard‑to‑reverse decisions based only on “it should be right”. It gives a business the chance to see how a big move is likely to play out across money, feed, people and risk before committing stock, capital and time – and to choose the option that best fits what the business can actually carry.